The Kansas City Chiefs hovered above the NFL during Patrick Mahomes’s first three seasons as their starting quarterback, operating on a plane where passes could be thrown without looking, deficits didn’t matter and broccoli tasted like vanilla ice cream. The Chiefs this year are no longer invincible. They’re barely even good.
It has been a shock to everyone, perhaps, except Mahomes. He grew up around professional sports, the son of a major league relief pitcher. He learned nothing is ever as bad or as good as it seems and neither lasts long.
“I don’t sense any sad songs,” said Bobby Stroupe, Mahomes’s longtime personal trainer and the president of APEC training centers. “We’re not playing any country music in our workouts right now. He’s not an idiot. Everybody knows there’s going to be times like this. Grit is sticking to a plan you believe in when the results aren’t what you think they should be. I know that is something he believes.”
In three years as a starter, Mahomes has won the league’s MVP award, won the Super Bowl and reached the Super Bowl. The Chiefs enter Sunday night’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders at 5-4, sitting outside the AFC playoff picture halfway through the season. They have won two straight since a startling 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans, but their offensive scuffles remain jarring. The Chiefs scored 20 and 13 points in those victories. They have compiled two touchdown drives of longer than 13 yards in the past three weeks.
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In the first 52 starts of his career, Mahomes lost by more than three points five times. Over his past 10 games, starting with last year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs’ average result has been a loss of 2.8 points.
“It’s been kind of rainbows and flowers and awesome for these last few years,” Mahomes told reporters after the Titans loss. “But whenever you want to build something substantial and you want to build something great, you’re going to go through parts like this.”
The disorienting fall of the Chiefs has birthed abundant theories with varying degrees of merit. But there is no one simple explanation for the team’s struggles. The offense has fallen below its standard for a combination of factors: defenses employing extreme tactics, adjustments with a new offensive line and plain underperformance.
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The answer to a mysterious drop in performance is often health, especially for an athlete coming off surgery such as Mahomes, who repaired the turf toe he played through last postseason. But he is now fully healthy and in peak physical form, Stroupe said. Player tracking data, not all of which is publicly available, shows Mahomes is reaching his typical sprint speeds and acceleration rates. Biomechanical analysis suggests his passing mechanics and running form are unchanged.
“He’s him,” Stroupe said. “His movement signatures are the same. He’s moving as good or better than he ever has. ... Physically, there are literally no problems. He’s as healthy or healthier than he’s ever been in Week 10 in his career.”
The most popular explanation for the Chiefs’ relative offensive struggles has been the shell-like defenses teams have deployed against them to limit their quick-strike ability. It may seem overly simplistic. Coach Andy Reid has been perhaps the best offensive mind in the NFL during his 23 years as a head coach, a career in which he has presumably seen defenses line up two safeties deep.
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“It’s not like we’ve never faced zone coverage before,” Mahomes told reporters this week.
But those defensive alignments are a significant factor. Opponents have realized they need to counter the Chiefs’ extreme passing attack with an extreme tilt toward coverage. Defenses have played two deep safeties in zone coverages against the Chiefs without relent, challenging the Chiefs to move the ball methodically without turnovers or penalties. Even while throwing passes nearly a yard shorter on average than last year, Mahomes owns the lowest competition percentage (65.2) and highest interception rate (2.8 percent) of his career. The deep passes he once made with frequency have evaporated.
“We used to have one or two 30-yards-plus passes a game,” said one former Chiefs player, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to give a candid assessment. “Now it’s rare, and they have to rely on a great route runner and a good run game to win.”
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The Chiefs may miss Sammy Watkins more than most people realize. When healthy, Watkins, who joined the Baltimore Ravens in free agency, punished defenses that double-teamed or bracketed both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Speedster Mecole Hardman has not developed into a reliable third option. Veteran import Josh Gordon hasn’t filled the hole, either.
“When defenses are playing a lot of shell coverages, you have to run the ball,” Mahomes told reporters. The Chiefs perhaps have not run the ball often enough. They average 4.6 yards per rush, eighth in the NFL. But second-year running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has missed the past four weeks with a left knee injury, has been inconsistent since the Chiefs used a first-round pick on him following their Super Bowl triumph.
Opposing defenses have taken another strategic pillar to the extreme. Defenses have shied away from blitzing Mahomes his entire career but never like this season. Last year, he faced a blitz on 22.4 percent of his dropbacks, second lowest of any quarterback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. This season, defenses have blitzed him on 13.4 percent of dropbacks. That doesn’t just make him the least-blitzed quarterback this year. It makes him the least-blitzed quarterback since at least 2011, when PFF started collecting the data.
The strategy has paid off for defenses: When he’s blitzed, Mahomes averages 8.4 yards per attempt, 12th in the NFL. When he’s not, it drops to an average of 6.8 yards, tied for 26th.
“One of Pat’s strengths is to recognize pressure and put the O-line on the right blitzer by flipping and/or changing protections,” the former Chiefs player said. “That was creating bigger windows and openings in coverage and allowing us to capitalize on the defense’s mistakes when we were able to release the running back free. Now teams barely blitz versus the Chiefs and count on their front four to run games and twists to put pressure. It’s allowed defenses to play tighter coverage and more sound defense.”
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The one thing that’s different physically for Mahomes this year, Stroupe said, is the velocity of his passes. On average, he is throwing harder this season. “Sometimes when you see a guy throwing the ball harder on average, you look to them feeling the need to get the ball out or feeling the need to rush on decisions,” Stroupe said.
The need may be arising from Mahomes and a rebuilt offensive line adjusting to each other. The Chiefs’ overhaul included tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Lucas Niang replacing Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher. Mahomes has a penchant to drift backward to buy time, and Fisher and Schwartz had the athletic ability to hold off rushers in a way that suited him. Brown and Niang play a more physical style. Mahomes has frequently spoken this season about wanting to stay in pockets longer.
Though he has rarely needed the attribute in the NFL, Mahomes is suited to confront problems. At Texas Tech, he lost more than he won. Chiefs General Manager Brett Veach coveted him in part for how well he responded to adverse circumstances in college.
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“66-10 at Iowa State wasn’t that long ago,” Stroupe said. “... I’ve never known Patrick to not want to play when the chips are down.”
All the Chiefs’ issues are relative, all their problems fixable. They remain as talented as any offense in the league. Mahomes is an all-time great already, at age 26. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scuffled to 7-5 last year before winning the Super Bowl. The Chiefs started 6-4 in 2019 before going all the way.
Not even Mahomes is immune to the NFL’s reality, but that doesn’t mean he can’t transcend it again.
“It’s been bad these last few weeks,” Mahomes said. “It hasn’t been the way you’ve been accustomed to [seeing us]. But it’s no different than what we were doing at the beginning of the year when we were having success. If I had to bet on it, I’d bet we kind of figure it out here soon.”
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